Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

No macroeconomic publications are scheduled for Wednesday in Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, or the U.S. There are no important, secondary, or tertiary reports. Therefore, strong movements in the currency market are unlikely today. Certainly, there is the geopolitical factor, and the market can move under the influence of factors other than specific events. However, the likelihood of high volatility today is nearly zero.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Today, the only fundamental event to note is the publication of the FOMC minutes from the June meeting. We do not consider this document significant, as it discloses details about the meeting and the voting on the rate that are already known. Furthermore, the minutes are published three weeks after the meeting, making them, to put it mildly, irrelevant. The minutes will likely reflect the Federal Reserve's "hawkish" stance, but traders are already well aware of this. The most recent labor market data may have, in real time, decreased FOMC committee members' desire to vote for policy tightening by the end of the year.

The geopolitical backdrop remains consistently "conditionally positive." Iran and the U.S. have signed an agreement remotely; however, too many important issues remain unresolved. In particular, there is the "nuclear issue," the war between Lebanon and Israel, and the status of the Strait of Hormuz. Theoretically, the market may fear the resumption of a full-scale war; however, this is clearly insufficient to sustain dollar demand. After all, Tehran and Washington are still on paths toward peace, and negotiations are ongoing, although no one expects them to be quick and easy.

General Conclusions:

During the third trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade very sluggishly, as there are once again no significant events today. Both the euro and the pound could move in either direction. The euro can be traded in the range of 1.1420-1.1432, while the British pound can be traded in the range of 1.3319-1.3331. We would not expect strong movements and high volatility today.

Basic Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of a signal is evaluated based on the time it takes to form (bounce or breakout). The less time required, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened at a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair may generate many false signals or none at all. Technical levels may be overlooked.
4. On the hourly timeframe, trading signals from the MACD indicator should be executed only when volatility is good, and a trend is confirmed by a trend line or channel.
5. If two levels are too close together (5 to 20 pips), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set at breakeven.

What's on the Charts:

Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.

Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.

Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.