Trade Analysis and Recommendations for the Euro

The test of the 1.0873 level occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving downward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling. However, the expected decline did not materialize, leading to a stop-out and loss.

The euro found support due to the absence of economic data from the Eurozone. Traders took advantage of this information vacuum to push the single currency higher. A technical factor also played a role, as the upward trend and the ECB's cautious stance contributed to the bullish sentiment.

Later today, the focus will shift to U.S. economic data, particularly the retail sales report, which is a key indicator of consumer spending, a major driver of the U.S. economy. Additionally, the Empire Manufacturing Index will be released, providing insights into the manufacturing sector in New York State. While this index covers only one region, it can offer clues about broader industrial trends in the U.S..

Another important release is the NAHB Housing Market Index, which measures builder confidence in the housing market. Taken together, these reports will help provide a clearer picture of the current U.S. economic situation.

For intraday trading, I will focus on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy EUR/USD at 1.0930 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.0977. At 1.0977, I plan to exit long positions and open short trades, anticipating a 30-35 point pullback. The trend remains bullish, so a continuation of the uptrend is likely.

Important! Before buying, confirm that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I will also consider buying EUR/USD if the price tests 1.0893 twice, with the MACD indicator in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal to the upside, with expected targets at 1.0930 and 1.0977.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Sell EUR/USD after it breaks below 1.0893 (red line on the chart). The target is 1.0834, where I will exit short positions and open long trades for a 20-25 point rebound. Bearish pressure could return if U.S. data strengthens the dollar.

Important! Before selling, confirm that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I will also consider selling EUR/USD if the price tests 1.0930 twice, with the MACD indicator in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward, with expected targets at 1.0893 and 1.0834.

Chart Key:

• Thin green line – Entry price for buying.
• Thick green line – Expected target for Take Profit or manual profit-taking, as further upside beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – Entry price for selling.
• Thick red line – Expected target for Take Profit or manual profit-taking, as further downside beyond this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – Always consider overbought and oversold conditions when entering the market.

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders:

Making trading decisions requires extreme caution. Avoid entering the market before key fundamental reports, as sudden price swings can lead to significant losses.

If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses. Trading without stop-losses can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you trade large volumes without proper risk management.

For successful trading, you need a clear and structured trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive decisions based on short-term price movements is a losing strategy for intraday traders.