Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are very few macroeconomic events scheduled for Thursday, but the U.S. inflation report still holds some relevance for traders. At the moment, inflation has limited influence because virtually everyone expects it to accelerate in 2025. Therefore, even if inflation declines today, it shouldn't affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. The U.S. central bank is unlikely to lower interest rates now, only to raise them again in the second half of the year. No other significant reports are expected throughout the day.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There's still little point in discussing anything other than Trump's trade war. The dollar's decline may continue indefinitely despite last week's upward correction. We recommend that traders focus on statements from top officials of major countries and alliances regarding tariffs. Trump stated that any retaliation against his actions to "eliminate unfairness" will be met with new sanctions and tariffs.

At the same time, the U.S. president introduced a 90-day grace period for all countries except China, during which a flat 10% import tariff will apply. According to Trump, this period is meant to negotiate trade agreements. However, we'd like to point out that the likelihood of reaching deals with the EU or China remains extremely low.

General Conclusions:

Both currency pairs (EUR/USD and GBP/USD) may move in either direction on this second-to-last trading day of the week. The market remains in a state of panic and chaos, so there's no clear logic behind price movements. News about the trade war is released every few hours, and today's U.S. inflation report could also influence market behavior.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.