Analysis of Monday's Trades

1H Chart of GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair continued to trade with substantial gains throughout Monday. On the first trading day of the week, there were no notable events either in the UK or the US, and even Donald Trump refrained from introducing new tariffs or sanctions. Nevertheless, overall sentiment in global markets remains sharply negative toward the US dollar. As such, while we did not expect another collapse of the US currency right at the market open, at the same time, who can be surprised by such a development anymore? The US dollar has been falling non-stop for two whole months now (three months in total). A new day began with a new drop for the dollar—and, once again, during the night. At this point, the US currency stands no chance at all. Its freefall continues.

5M Chart of GBP/USD

On the 5-minute timeframe Monday, three trading signals were formed, but the best one occurred during the night. The price bounced from the 1.3272 level at the market opening and climbed by at least 140 pips. However, taking advantage of this signal was difficult due to the time it appeared. The second buy signal near the 1.3365 level was easier to work with, although the pair failed to show strong movement afterward. The third signal near that same 1.3365 level appeared late in the evening. Then, the price again rebounded from 1.3365 and showed decent growth during the night.

Trading Strategy for Tuesday:

On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair could have started a downtrend long ago, but the market continues to focus solely on Trump. As a result, the British pound keeps crawling upward. Therefore, the pair's future movements remain dependent entirely on the US president and his decisions—and nothing else.

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair may continue trading upward again, even though there are no local catalysts for such a move. Trump is in no rush to impose new tariffs, UK inflation is falling, and the British economy remains weak. Nevertheless, traders don't seem to care about any of this right now.

On the 5-minute timeframe, trading can currently be done using the following levels: 1.2848–1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980–1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3102–1.3107, 1.3145–1.3167, 1.3203, 1.3272, 1.3365, 1.3428–1.3440, 1.3488, 1.3537, 1.3580–1.3598. No noteworthy events are scheduled for Tuesday in the US or the UK. However, the British pound may continue its upward movement regardless.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.