empty
28.04.2025 06:49 AM
EUR/USD. Weekly Preview. Eurozone Inflation, U.S. GDP, ISM Manufacturing Index, April Nonfarm Payrolls

The upcoming week's economic calendar is packed with important releases. As usual, the beginning of a new month brings significant macroeconomic reports from the U.S. and the Eurozone, typically triggering strong volatility for the EUR/USD pair. However, this time, the situation is slightly different—news from the "front lines" of the trade war has overshadowed macroeconomic reports. Any significant information related to the tariff confrontation will take precedence over all other fundamental factors. But if the coming days see a slow-moving situation (no escalation but no signs of de-escalation), the key macroeconomic releases should still attract traders' attention. Especially since some reports will reflect April trends, allowing for an assessment of the impact of the U.S.'s new tariff plan.

This image is no longer relevant

It's worth noting that the most important reports for EUR/USD traders will be published in the second half of the week. For instance, Monday is an empty day. If Donald Trump doesn't stir the markets with new loud statements, the EUR/USD pair will likely spend the first trading day in a flat movement (similar to Friday).

Tuesday

The most important reports will be released in the U.S. (during the American session) on Tuesday, April 29. Firstly, we'll see the April Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board. The indicator has been declining for four consecutive months, and April may mark the fifth, with forecasts suggesting a drop to 87.4 points (the lowest since December 2020).

Secondly, the JOLTs report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) will be published, showing the number of job openings at the end of the reporting month. This figure declined to 7.57 million in February, and a further decrease to 7.48 million is expected in March.

Wednesday

China's manufacturing PMI will be published during the Asian session on Wednesday. After two months of growth, the indicator is expected to fall to 49.5 points. If the index unexpectedly remains above the 50-point expansion level, risk appetite could rise, supporting EUR/USD buyers.

Preliminary data on Eurozone GDP growth will be released during the European session. Forecasts suggest the economy grew by 0.2% in Q1 2025, matching Q4 2024's result. It's crucial for EUR/USD bulls that this figure doesn't turn negative, which could signal a looming recession.

Also, on Wednesday, the U.S. ADP Employment Report will be released. This serves as a sort of barometer ahead of Friday's official data. A weak result (+123,000 jobs) is expected. Even meeting the forecast (let alone missing it) would put pressure on the dollar.

However, the biggest volatility trigger for EUR/USD will be the second estimate of U.S. GDP growth for Q1 2025. The first estimate showed 2.4% growth, but most experts anticipate a sharp revision down to 0.4%. Such a result would significantly weigh on the dollar, especially amid the ongoing "U.S. vs. the World" trade war.

Thursday

Thursday's key event will be the ISM Manufacturing Index. In March, the indicator unexpectedly fell into contraction territory at 49.0. In April, a further decline to 48.0 is expected.

It's also important to note that many trading floors will be closed on Thursday for Labor Day celebrations across Europe (Germany, Italy, Switzerland, France, Spain) and parts of Asia (China, Singapore).

Friday

On Friday, traders' attention will shift to the U.S. April Nonfarm Payrolls report. Preliminary forecasts do not favor the dollar. Nonfarm employment is expected to grow by only 129,000, and the unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4.2%. Meanwhile, the wage growth indicator may slow to 3.7%, and the labor force participation rate could drop to 62.2% (the lowest since December 2022).

If Nonfarm Payrolls match or fall short of expectations, the dollar will again come under pressure amid rising recession risks and the ongoing trade standoff.

Additionally, preliminary CPI data for the Eurozone will be released. Headline inflation is expected to slow to 2.1% year-over-year, while core inflation is forecast to rise slightly to 2.5%. If both indicators come out stronger than expected, the euro could receive background support, although the primary focus will be on Nonfarm Payrolls.

Conclusions

The key macroeconomic reports scheduled for the week will reveal how "toxic" the new U.S. tariffs have been. If the American economy slows to 0.4% growth—or worse, contracts—the dollar will face intense pressure, and EUR/USD could test the 1.14 area. If the U.S. economy shows resilience against expectations, the dollar could recover, with sellers aiming to push EUR/USD below 1.1300 toward the 1.11 region. If the results are mixed, the pair will likely continue fluctuating within the 1.13 range.

Irina Manzenko,
Analytical expert of InstaTrade
© 2007-2025

Recommended Stories

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, gold is attempting a recovery despite the broader strength of the U.S. dollar, which is undermining the global rebound in the precious metal. U.S. President Donald Trump and European

Irina Yanina 12:08 2025-07-28 UTC+2

Yen Continues to Weaken

The annual inflation rate in Tokyo declined from 3.1% in June to 2.9% in July. The core index, excluding food and energy prices, also slowed from 3.1% to 2.9% year-over-year

Kuvat Raharjo 09:56 2025-07-28 UTC+2

Markets to face trial by fire

Markets continue their upward sprint as worst-case scenarios fail to materialize. Donald Trump threatened Japan and the EU with 30% tariffs - they got 15%. With China, talks reached 145%

Marek Petkovich 09:23 2025-07-28 UTC+2

The U.S. and the European Union Reach a Difficult Trade Agreement

The euro rose against the U.S. dollar following reports that the United States and the European Union had reached a hard-fought agreement under which the EU will face 15% tariffs

Jakub Novak 09:16 2025-07-28 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on July 28? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are no macroeconomic reports scheduled for Monday. Thus, unless Donald Trump makes some new high-profile statements or decisions, traders may face low volatility and a flat market on Monday

Paolo Greco 06:18 2025-07-28 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – July 28: Very little time left before August 1

The EUR/USD currency pair is maintaining a bullish tone on the 4-hour timeframe. While the British pound has shown a fairly sharp decline in recent days, the euro

Paolo Greco 03:48 2025-07-28 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – July 28: The Pound's Unexpected Collapse and Weak UK Data

The GBP/USD currency pair declined significantly on Friday. This drop in the British pound is somewhat puzzling, as there were no strong fundamental reasons behind it. We do not believe

Paolo Greco 03:48 2025-07-28 UTC+2

EUR/USD. The Hottest Week of July: FOMC Meeting, Core PCE Index, Eurozone Inflation, US GDP, and Nonfarm Payrolls

The upcoming week promises to be volatile. The economic calendar is packed with key fundamental events — including Nonfarm Payrolls, the FOMC meeting, eurozone inflation data, the ISM Manufacturing Index

Irina Manzenko 00:48 2025-07-28 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview. Weekly Preview. Fed Meeting and Key Labor Market Data

The GBP/USD currency pair declined significantly at the end of last week. This sharp drop in the British pound raises some confusion, as there were no solid reasons for such

Paolo Greco 00:48 2025-07-28 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview. Weekly Preview. Will the Euro Follow the Pound's Decline?

The EUR/USD currency pair maintains a bullish bias on the 4-hour timeframe. While the British pound has shown a notable decline in recent days, the euro

Paolo Greco 00:48 2025-07-28 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.