Only a few hours have passed since the overnight airstrike by American bombers on Iranian nuclear facilities—and already, missiles are flying in the opposite direction. However, they are not targeting US military bases or assets but Israel, which is within much closer reach. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has called for a UN Security Council meeting and stated that Iran reserves the right to retaliate. He warned that the US attacks would have long-term consequences for the region.

According to Araghchi, the United States has blatantly violated the UN Charter, international law, and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty by attacking peaceful nuclear sites. Iran argues that under the same pretext, the US could target any nuclear facility in the world by labeling it a "dangerous threat." "The UN Charter permits a legitimate response in self-defense. Iran reserves the right to defend its sovereignty, its national interests, and its people," said the Iranian Foreign Minister.

It's worth recalling that Iran's nuclear story has always been shrouded in ambiguity. For decades, Iranian authorities have insisted that their nuclear activities are exclusively peaceful. The US and much of the world suspect Iran of developing nuclear missiles and warheads disguised as "civilian research." Notably, many of Iran's nuclear facilities are located underground, making them invisible to the outside world and even to satellites. Naturally, intelligence agencies exist, and Iran is likely developing nuclear energy not solely for peaceful purposes—especially considering the region's 40+ years of tension.

Nonetheless, the facts remain. Iran is accused of pursuing nuclear weapons, but it denies the claims and demands the lifting of sanctions that have stifled its economy for over four decades. In my opinion, it is unlikely that Tehran will voluntarily give up its nuclear ambitions, even at this stage. It has had approximately 40 years to do so. The fact that it has not suggests that nuclear development is a higher priority than economic recovery and full-fledged peaceful engagement with the world. Therefore, the conflict is likely to continue, with both sides continuing to strike each other.

How will the dollar react on Monday?

That's a difficult question. In recent months, the US dollar has lost its status as a "safe haven." And now, the United States has become directly involved in an international military conflict. I doubt that market participants will welcome this development or that demand for the US currency will rise.

Wave Structure for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues forming an upward trend segment. The wave pattern still completely depends on the news backdrop related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. The targets of wave 3 could extend up to the 1.25 area. Therefore, I consider buying positions with initial targets around 1.1708, corresponding to the 127.2% Fibonacci level. A de-escalation of the trade war could reverse the upward trend, but currently, there are no signs of either a reversal or de-escalation.

Wave Structure for GBP/USD:

The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward, impulsive trend segment. With Trump, markets may still face many shocks and reversals that could seriously impact wave structures, but at the moment, the working scenario remains intact, and Trump continues to do everything possible to reduce demand for the dollar. The targets of the upward wave 3 are near 1.3708, corresponding to the 200.0% Fibonacci level from the presumed global wave 2. Therefore, I continue to consider buying positions, as the market shows no intention of reversing the trend.

My Core Analytical Principles:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are hard to trade and often change.
2. If you're uncertain about what's happening in the market, it's better to stay out.
3. Absolute certainty in price direction never exists. Don't forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.