Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 147.62 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero mark, which, in my view, limited the pair's downside potential. For this reason, I did not sell the dollar.

Very strong data on the growth of machinery and equipment orders in Japan, well above economists' forecasts, led to a sharp strengthening of the yen against the dollar. This unexpected surge in activity in the manufacturing sector was perceived by the market as a sign of recovery in the Japanese economy, boosting demand for the Japanese currency. The published figures showed that the volume of machinery and equipment orders significantly exceeded expectations, indicating increased investment in production capacity and potential future growth. This, in turn, reduces concerns about a slowdown in Japan's economic growth and strengthens the Bank of Japan's stance on maintaining a wait-and-see monetary policy.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 147.63 (green line on the chart) with a target at 148.20 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 148.20, I intend to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35-point move from that level. It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above zero and is only just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 147.34 level at a time when the MACD is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 147.63 and 148.20 can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY only after the 147.34 level (red line on the chart) is updated, which will lead to a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 146.85, where I intend to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25-point rebound from that level. It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below zero and is only just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 147.63 level at a time when the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 147.34 and 146.85 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.