Analysis of Transactions and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 157.45 price coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar and missed all the upward movement.

Today, there is no relevant data from Japan, so the prolonged military conflict in the Middle East will play a determining role in the direction of the USD/JPY pair. Even though Japanese authorities have distanced themselves from any possible intervention in the conflict, expressing concern about the region's and the world's energy future, this only provided temporary support for the yen, which has since lost all its positions against the dollar and, apparently, will continue its decline. It is unlikely that any significant market changes will occur in the first half of the day, so it is better to shift the focus to the second half and the labor market data, which we will discuss in more detail later. For now, it's best to stick to trading within the sideways channel, relying on scenario No. 2.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buying Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the entry point reaches around 157.90 (green line on the chart) with a target growth to the level of 158.43 (thicker green line on the chart). Near 158.43, I intend to exit my long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is best to resume buying the pair on corrections and major pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 157.40 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase to the opposite levels of 157.90 and 158.43 can be expected.

Selling Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after the 157.40 level is updated (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 156.67, where I intend to exit my shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 157.90 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downward. A decrease to the opposite levels of 157.40 and 156.67 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line indicates the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• The MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to refer to the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.