According to a recent analytical note from Goldman Sachs, a sharp increase in oil prices, triggered by the military conflict in Iran and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, is expected to cost the global economy approximately 0.3% in lost GDP. Alongside the slowdown in economic growth, high commodity prices will fuel global inflation throughout the coming year.

The investment bank estimates that the energy crisis will add between 0.5 and 0.6 percentage points to the overall level of global inflation. Core inflation, which is stripped of volatile energy and food prices, is expected to show a weaker reaction, rising by only 0.1–0.2 percentage points. These figures are the result of the bank’s revised forecasts, which were made after key oil and gas shipping routes were paralyzed.

Despite the negative outlook, Goldman Sachs economists emphasize that the current shock is fundamentally different from the inflation surge of 2021–2022. The impact is localized exclusively in energy markets and does not affect broader logistics chains, as was the case during the pandemic.

The dependency of major economies on non-energy goods from the Middle East is minimal. Non-hydrocarbon exports from Gulf countries account for only about 1% of global trade. This suggests that significant production disruptions and a global commodity shortage due to the Iranian conflict are not anticipated, and that inflationary pressure will largely be contained to energy prices.

However, Goldman Sachs warns of ongoing risks. If military actions transition into a prolonged phase, and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for an extended period, oil prices could continue to rise. Extended supply disruptions could significantly amplify the negative effects, making inflation more stubborn and adding to the pressure on global economic growth.