On March 18, 2026, investment bank Goldman Sachs predicted that the S&P 500 index could fall to 6,300 points if macroeconomic indicators continue to weaken. The primary risk factors are high oil prices and geopolitical instability triggered by the military conflict with Iran.

The current decline in market quotes aligns with historical patterns observed during periods of major international upheaval. However, rising energy costs and overall uncertainty could hinder global growth and prompt the US Federal Reserve to delay monetary policy easing.

In a moderate shock scenario, the bank expects a contraction in stock valuation multiples amid market pessimism. Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs maintains a constructive long-term outlook for the stock market. The main supporting factor is corporate profits growth driven by substantial investments in the artificial intelligence sector.

Technological spending by American corporations will remain a fundamental driver of returns in the long run. Greater clarity regarding the Fed’s actions and the situation in the Middle East is anticipated by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, the ongoing influence of AI on the economy may continue to exert pressure on asset market valuations.