Donald Trump’s administration acknowledged on March 19, 2026, that no military solution would be able to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without a truce with Iran. Bloomberg reports that current tanker transits occur only on Tehran’s terms and depend on unofficial approval by Iranian authorities.

Security in the 48‑kilometre‑wide corridor remains threatened by asymmetric coastal defences. “We won’t risk sending commercial vessels until Iran’s mines, fast boats, and drones are neutralised,” Rapidan Energy Group President Bob McNally said. The limited coverage of escort air defences cannot effectively protect a large number of tankers in sync.  

Trump confirmed that even if Iran’s regular forces were defeated, the use of cheap drones would continue to threaten shipping. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have partially rerouted oil exports via pipelines to avoid the narrow sea lane. However, onshore infrastructure capacity cannot fully substitute the volumes shipped through the waterway.

The ongoing threat in the waters makes maritime transit in the region prohibitively expensive for carriers. “Iran only needs to sustain a level of risk that rules out safe passage,” Torbjørn Soltvedt, chief analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, noted. Tehran plans to set new rules of the game for the strait even after active hostilities end.