Investment bank Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts for the second time in less than two weeks. The key factors behind this upward revision are prolonged disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and rising structural risks to global supply chains.

According to the bank's updated baseline scenario, transport volume through the Strait of Hormuz will remain at only 5% of normal levels for the next six weeks, followed by a gradual recovery in traffic over the subsequent month. This extended logistical disruption, combined with the high concentration of global production and reserve capacity, fundamentally changes market dynamics.

"A recognition of the risks from the high concentration of production and spare capacity is likely to lead to structurally higher strategic stockpiling and long-dated prices," Daan Struyven, head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, noted.

In the short term, the bank expects the price rally to continue amid ongoing uncertainty. According to Struyven, quotes will rise until the market is convinced that a long-term shortage is unlikely. To curb demand and hedge against potential supply shortages, the market will require a "growing risk premium."

With new inputs considered, Goldman Sachs anticipates that the average price of Brent crude will reach $110 per barrel in March and April, up from a previous forecast of $98. This represents a sharp increase compared to levels in 2025.

The revision also impacted long-term benchmarks. The bank raised its average Brent price forecast for 2026 from $77 to $85 per barrel, expecting WTI to reach $79. Analysts explain that these changes reflect a deeper depletion of commercial inventories and a reassessment of effective reserve capacities in light of adapting to new geopolitical realities. Notably, just two weeks earlier, on March 11, Goldman had already increased its Q4 2026 forecasts for Brent and WTI from $66 and $62 to $71 and $67, respectively.

Looking ahead to 2027, the bank predicts an average Brent price of $80 but emphasizes significant risks of exceeding this threshold. In extreme scenarios where flows through Hormuz remain severely constrained for an extended period, daily Brent prices could surpass their historical highs posted in 2008.

In a "severely adverse scenario," which assumes a sustained loss of Middle Eastern supply, oil prices could spike sharply before stabilizing around $115 per barrel by the end of 2026.