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22.01.2026 07:39 AMBitcoin continues to decline after a sell signal formed on the daily timeframe, which we expected for about a month. Overall, it can already be said that traders who opened short positions on our recommendations are in profit. Of course, final profit depends on where the trade is closed, and finding the optimal entry point is no less important than finding the optimal exit point. At the moment, the price has broken the ascending trendline that we call the "liquidity pool." Some stop-loss orders and pending sell orders have already been "taken out." The decline paused, and the market appears to be showing traders that the breakout was false. We believe the breakout is not false, and that Bitcoin's decline will continue.
The minimum medium-term target for Bitcoin's fall is $70,800. During 2026, we allow for a much deeper drop in the world's leading cryptocurrency. As for the influence of macro and fundamental background, all markets are currently in a daze. Events in the new year are developing rapidly, and many of them are so contradictory that traders simply ignore them. For example, yesterday, Donald Trump reversed course on imposing tariffs on the UK and EU countries he himself announced last weekend. The Greenland question, according to Trump, was resolved with Mark Rutte, NATO's secretary-general, but issues with Iran, Latin American countries, and Jerome Powell remain relevant. The uptrend (rather formal) on the 4-hour timeframe was broken, so the nearest bearish patterns can reasonably be expected to resume the fall of the leading cryptocurrency.
On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin continues to form a downtrend, and the correction may already be complete. The trend structure is downward, and the CHOCH line currently crosses at $107,300. Only above that level can the downtrend be considered complete. In 2026, Bitcoin could fall as low as $60,000, where its last ascent began. The only POI for sales was the bearish FVG, which has already reacted to. The trading signal has formed, and confirmation has been received. The target for the new leg down may be $70,800 — the 50.0% Fibonacci level. The bullish FVG has been invalidated and turned bearish, becoming an IFVG that now serves as a new POI for selling.
On the 4-hour timeframe, the price left the sideways channel in which it spent one and a half months. However, Bitcoin's rise was short-lived, as the bearish FVG on the daily TF was worked off. The upward structure on the 4-hour TF is broken; several bearish FVGs have formed over the last few days. Given the picture on the daily TF, we assume the decline will continue, and all nearby bearish patterns can be used to open additional short positions.
Bitcoin continues to form a full-fledged downtrend. The two nearest targets (bullish OB in the $98,000–$102,700 area and the bullish FVG) have been worked off; now expect a fall to $70,800 (the 50.0% Fibonacci level of the three-year uptrend). From POI areas for selling on the daily TF, highlight the bearish FVG in the $96,800–$98,000 area. This pattern has been worked and received a price reaction. Now a sell trade can be managed/held. On the 4-hour TF, bearish FVGs are forming, from which additional short positions can be opened or used as confirmation of further decline.
CHOCH – change of character / break of trend structure.
Liquidity – liquidity; traders' Stop Loss orders that market makers use to accumulate their positions.
FVG – Fair Value Gap / area of price inefficiency. Price moves very quickly through such areas, indicating a complete absence of one side of the market. Subsequently, the price tends to return and receive a reaction from such areas.
IFVG – Inverted Fair Value Gap. After returning to such an area, the price does not receive a reaction but impulsively breaks through it and then tests it from the other side.
OB – Order Block. The candle on which a market maker opened a position to take liquidity and form their own position in the opposite direction.
