Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 158.79 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move up from the zero mark, confirming it as a valid entry point for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose towards the target level of 159.14, where selling on the rebound yielded about 30 pips in profit.

The publication of the minutes from the last Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting, contrary to expectations among some market participants, had no significant impact on the currency market. The Japanese yen, which could have gained momentum for strengthening, remained virtually unchanged, showing no reaction to the details discussed in the minutes. This observation reinforces the sense that even potentially significant signals from the central bank can lose strength in the face of a broader array of global geopolitical factors.

Despite the apparent lack of immediate reaction, the content of the minutes does not negate the fact that the prospects for a rise in interest rates by the Bank of Japan in the near future look quite real. Key economic indicators that provide grounds for revising current monetary policy were discussed. Surprisingly, the tone of the discussions and hints at possible timelines for changing the rate did not act as a catalyst for more active movements in the USD/JPY currency pair.

Possible explanations for this lack of reaction include the nervous situation in the Middle East. The US redeployment of ground troops to the region is a serious factor in the escalation of the conflict. Geopolitical tensions traditionally act as a trigger for a decline in risk appetite.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when it reaches an entry point around 159.12 (the green line on the chart), targeting a move to 159.45 (the thicker green line on the chart). At around 159.45, I plan to exit my long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30-35-pip move back from the level). It is best to return to buying the pair during corrections and significant pullbacks in USD/JPY. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise.

Scenario 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 158.92 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. An increase towards opposing levels of 159.12 and 159.45 can be anticipated.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after updating the 158.92 level (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 158.65 level, where I plan to exit the shorts and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move back from the level). It is better to sell as high as possible. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its decline.

Scenario 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 159.12 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decrease towards opposing levels of 158.92 and 158.65 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line indicates the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the assumed price where you can set Take Profit or manually take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• The MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to refer to the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market need to make entry decisions very carefully. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp fluctuations in prices. If you choose to trade during the release of news, always set Stop Loss orders to minimize losses. Without placing Stop Loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.