Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 144.81 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly below the zero line, which limited the pair's downside potential. The second test of 144.81 coincided with the MACD recovering from the oversold area, which triggered Scenario #2 for buying the dollar. As a result, the pair rose by more than 100 pips. During the middle of the U.S. session, the price test at 145.83 aligned with the beginning of MACD's upward movement from the zero line, so I bought the dollar again and secured about 50 pips in profit.

The escalation of trade disputes between the U.S. and its key partners continues to pressure risk assets. While yen buyers still hope for a rate hike from the Bank of Japan, the U.S. dollar has been regaining strength. The lack of progress in tariff reduction talks breeds uncertainty and undermines investor confidence. The potential for retaliatory measures—like those introduced by China—by other countries only adds to fears of further global trade destabilization, possibly leading to reduced trade volumes, slower economic growth, and higher inflation.

However, since some traders are using the yen as a safe haven, a sharp drop in the yen against the U.S. dollar is unlikely.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 146.32 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise toward 148.05 (thicker green line). Around 148.05, I plan to exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 pips pullback. It's best to return to buying this pair on pullbacks and deep corrections. Important: Before entering a long trade, ensure the MACD is above the zero line and starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 144.83 level while the MACD is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside and may trigger a reversal to the upside—expected targets: 146.32 and 148.05.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY only after a confirmed breakout below 144.83 (red line on the chart), likely leading to a sharp drop. The main target for sellers will be 143.32, where I plan to exit the short and open a buy trade in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 pip pullback. Bearish pressure may return at any moment. Important: Before entering a short trade, ensure the MACD is below the zero line and starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of 146.32 while the MACD is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal—expected targets: 144.83 and 143.32.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.