On Friday, the EUR/USD pair reversed near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1666, missing it by just a few pips. As a result, no clear rebound occurred and no trading signal was formed. On Monday, the pair returned to the 50.0% retracement level at 1.1745.

A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar and a renewed decline toward the 38.2% level at 1.1666. A sustained move above 1.1745 would allow for further growth toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1824.

The wave structure on the hourly chart currently raises no concerns. The last completed upward wave broke above six previous highs, while the latest downward wave has not come close to the previous low. The two-week ceasefire between Iran and the United States supported the bulls, allowing them to form a strong upward wave. Thus, the trend is currently bullish.

In the near term, geopolitical tensions may escalate again, which could strengthen the bears. However, breaking the bullish trend would now require either two consecutive downward waves or a break below the April 6 low.

On Friday, the economic backdrop included two reports: Germany's April business climate index and the U.S. consumer sentiment index. The latter was more important, but neither report had any meaningful impact on market sentiment. Bulls began their advance already in the first half of Friday and were not discouraged even by a stronger-than-expected reading from the University of Michigan index.

On Monday, bullish pressure persisted, while the economic data was limited to Germany's May consumer confidence index. This report was also unimpressive, yet the euro continued to rise throughout most of the day. This suggests that the market is still largely ignoring economic data—especially secondary releases like those seen on Friday and Monday.

In my view, the ongoing upward movement is driven by the continued ceasefire in the Middle East. The dollar is losing its advantage, as markets currently have little need for a safe-haven currency.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the euro and consolidated above the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1706. This opens the way for further growth toward the next retracement level at 50.0% (1.1778).

A rebound from this level would favor the U.S. dollar and a decline toward 1.1706 and 1.1617. A breakout above 1.1778 would allow traders to expect further gains toward the 38.2% level at 1.1849. No developing divergences are currently observed on any indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 2,768 long positions and closed 12,538 short positions. Over the previous seven weeks, the bulls' overall advantage had disappeared, but the past two weeks indicate that bulls are returning to the market.

The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 217,000, compared to 176,000 short positions. The gap is once again widening in favor of the euro.

In the longer term, major players continue to show strong interest in the euro. However, global events—plentiful in recent years—continue to shape investor sentiment. At present, market attention remains focused on the Middle East, where the conflict is paused but not resolved.

Thus, in the near term, EUR/USD movements will depend less on Federal Reserve or ECB policy and economic data, and more on developments related to the conflict involving Iran.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

• Germany – Consumer Confidence Index (06:00 UTC)

On April 27, the economic calendar contains only one minor event. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Monday is expected to remain very limited.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

Selling opportunities may arise today if the pair rebounds from the 1.1745 level on the hourly chart, with a target at 1.1666. Buying opportunities are recommended if the pair closes above 1.1745, targeting 1.1824.

Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.2082 to 1.1410 on the hourly chart, and from 1.1474 to 1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.