Trade Review and Advice for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.1730 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving upward from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for buying the euro. As a result, the pair came within a step of the target level at 1.1752.

Data showing a sharp decline in Germany's consumer climate index from GfK had only minimal pressure on the euro. Nevertheless, it is important not to ignore the fact that the euro's sustained growth is overlooking fundamental, economic, and geopolitical issues, meaning the current bullish market could end just as quickly as it began.

Since there are no U.S. statistical releases scheduled for the second half of the day, extreme caution is required in such a fragile market. The lack of major macroeconomic reports from the United States typically increases market volatility, which can lead to sudden reversals at any moment. Traders are strongly advised to remain prudent and avoid FOMO. Instead of aggressive positioning, it may be more appropriate to focus on risk hedging or shorter-term trades.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, euro purchases are possible when the price reaches the 1.1754 level (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1790. At 1.1790, I plan to exit the market and also open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points from the entry point. Euro growth today can be expected only if there is positive news from the Middle East.

Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1739 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. Growth toward 1.1754 and 1.1790 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1739 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1707, where I intend to exit the market and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair will return today if the U.S. and Iran take a hardline stance.

Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1754 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward 1.1739 and 1.1707 can be expected.

Chart Explanation

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – estimated level to place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – estimated level to place Take Profit or lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders must be extremely cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses.

Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you trade large volumes without proper money management.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions are an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.