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29.06.2026 09:38 AMThe price test at 1.1416 coincided with the moment when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero level, which limited the pair's upward potential at the end of the week. For this reason, I did not buy euros.
Positive data from the University of Michigan strengthened the dollar's position. Along with comments from Federal Reserve representatives, these factors collectively caused markets to reassess expectations regarding the trajectory of monetary policy, boosting forecasts for earlier rate hikes. Against this backdrop, the EUR/USD pair faced noticeable pressure, dropping back to last Friday's opening level.
Market participants will closely monitor every word from the head of the ECB to determine the trajectory of monetary policy amid slowing economic growth. While recent macroeconomic releases indicate some stabilization in inflationary expectations, Lagarde's rhetoric remains a key driver for short-term movements in the EUR/USD pair. She is expected to maintain a cautious tone, emphasizing the ECB's reliance on incoming data and the need to keep rates elevated for an extended period.
The figures for the M3 money supply and private sector lending, which are set to be released today for the Eurozone, are, by contrast, lagging indicators. Analysts forecast a moderate slowdown in the growth rate of the money aggregate, a direct consequence of the tight financing conditions previously introduced to combat rising prices.
As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: Today, you can buy euros when the price reaches around 1.1410 (the green line on the chart), aiming for growth toward 1.1435. At 1.1435, I plan to exit the market and sell euros back, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. You can count on the euro's growth only after Lagarde's firm comments. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1393 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A move to the opposite levels of 1.1410 and 1.1435 is expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1393 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1358, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair today will return only if the ECB representative takes a soft stance. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1410 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decrease to the opposite levels of 1.1393 and 1.1358 can be expected.
Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
Thick green line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
Thick red line – presumed price level for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
MACD Indicator. When entering the market, it is important to consider the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market must be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before major fundamental reports are released, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you are not using money management and are trading large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.
