empty
21.04.2025 11:46 AM
Markets in limbo: awaiting next shock or revival

After the rollercoaster ride of early April, the US stock market seems to have come to a standstill. The S&P 500 is neither alive nor dead — it's starting to resemble Schrodinger's cat. All it would take is one shock event for the broad equity index to tumble back into bear-market territory. And a social media post by Donald Trump could be that event. This is a man whose words move trillions. Corporate America has never seen anything like it. Should we really be surprised by a spike in volatility?

S&P 500 volatility trends

This image is no longer relevant

There is a reason the S&P 500 has plunged and is now stuck, awaiting further guidance from the man in the White House. The Republican firebrand has impressed investors with bold talk of shifting from short-term pain to long-term prosperity for the US. However, no one knows how far Trump is willing to go. Will this pain spiral into a recession? Or could negotiations between Washington and foreign capitals ultimately lead to a rollback of tariffs?

Some Wall Street firms are starting to issue binary forecasts for the S&P 500. Crossmark Global Investments, for instance, says the index could plunge to 4,000 in the event of a recession, or soar to 5,800 if the US manages to avoid one.

The trouble is that if Trump follows through with his pledge to eliminate the US current account deficit, American equities could take a serious hit. Historically, US trade imbalances have tended to shrink during economic downturns.

US foreign trade dynamics as percentage of GDP

This image is no longer relevant

This stems from the fundamental link between the current and capital accounts in the balance of payments. When the current account is negative, capital flows into the US to offset the imbalance. However, as the deficit narrows, capital flows out, weakening the USD index and making investments in American equities less attractive. After all, what is the point in buying US stocks if the dollar is about to lose 30%?

The White House's efforts to rebalance trade through the largest tariffs seen since the early 20th century — along with demands that other nations boost US imports — will inevitably reduce foreign income, making those countries less able to buy US-issued stocks and bonds. This is a structural shift with the potential to trigger a serious pullback in the S&P 500.

This image is no longer relevant

Instead of pursuing a backup strategy, Donald Trump is making matters worse by going after Jerome Powell. If the Fed's independence is truly undermined, confidence in the US dollar could sink to historic lows, accelerating capital flight from the country.

Technically, a 1-2-3 reversal pattern may be taking shape on the daily chart of the S&P 500 — but for that to happen, bulls need to reclaim the inside bar. A break above the 5,325 high would trigger a buy signal. Conversely, a clean break below the 5,250 low would reopen the path for short positions.

Recommended Stories

Trump sigue encadenando victorias (hay probabilidad de una caída del par EUR/USD y del precio del oro)

Durante el pasado fin de semana, el presidente estadounidense D. Trump y la presidenta de la Comisión Europea U. von der Leyen anunciaron la consecución de un acuerdo comercial entre

Pati Gani 12:01 2025-07-28 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 28 de julio. Caída inesperada de la libra, datos débiles desde el Reino Unido.

El par de divisas el par GBP/USD cayó bastante el viernes. Esta caída de la libra británica genera cierta perplejidad, ya que no hubo razones de peso para ello

Paolo Greco 07:22 2025-07-28 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 28 de julio. Queda muy poco tiempo hasta el 1 de agosto.

El par de divisas EUR/USD mantiene una orientación alcista en el marco temporal de 4 horas. Si la libra británica ha mostrado en los últimos días una caída bastante fuerte

Paolo Greco 07:22 2025-07-28 UTC+2

USD/JPY. El yen y la política: un lunes difícil para la moneda japonesa

Al inicio de la nueva semana de negociación, el par USD/JPY no puede determinar la dirección de su movimiento. Los traders no logran decidir cómo reaccionar ante las elecciones

Irina Manzenko 12:03 2025-07-21 UTC+2

La UE prepara un contraataque

Durante el fin de semana se supo que EE. UU. impondrá aranceles del 30% a todos los productos de la UE a partir del 1 de agosto de este

Jakub Novak 10:58 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 14 de julio. Tranquilidad, solo tranquilidad.

El par de divisas GBP/USD mostró una caída bastante significativa durante el viernes. En general, la libra esterlina ha estado cayendo durante 2 semanas, y este es un hecho

Paolo Greco 07:49 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 14 de julio. La posición de la Fed y Trump permanece sin cambios.

El par de divisas EUR/USD continuó el viernes con un movimiento descendente suave y débil. Como ya hemos mencionado muchas veces, el movimiento actual es una corrección en estado puro

Paolo Greco 07:49 2025-07-14 UTC+2

El oro volvió a subir

El precio del oro se estabilizó después de un fuerte aumento observado durante la sesión asiática de hoy. Los operadores siguen prestando mucha atención a las amenazas de imposición

Jakub Novak 10:31 2025-07-11 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 9 de julio. ¿Qué implica la "Ley maravillosa" de Trump?

El par de divisas GBP/USD durante el martes volvió a moverse a la baja, lo cual sigue causando cada vez más sorpresa. Por supuesto, ya hemos dicho en múltiples ocasiones

Paolo Greco 05:22 2025-07-09 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 9 de julio. ¿Qué juego está jugando Trump con los aranceles?

El par de divisas EUR/USD durante el martes mantuvo un ánimo de corrección. No hubo eventos macroeconómicos en este día, sin embargo, Donald Trump "leyó toda la lista" de países

Paolo Greco 05:22 2025-07-09 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaTrade anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.