Review of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the price at 1.1806 occurred when the MACD indicator had already appreciated significantly from the zero mark, which limited the upward potential of the euro. The second test at 1.1806 occurred when the MACD was in overbought territory, allowing the implementation of sell scenario #2 for the euro. As a result, the pair declined to around 1.1779.

Yesterday, the European Central Bank decided to keep key interest rates unchanged, maintaining the deposit rate at 2%. According to the central bank, inflationary processes are under control, and the economic outlook for the Eurozone looks quite promising. Against this generally predictable move, the financial markets reacted with cautious optimism. This decision by the central bank demonstrates a growing strong confidence in the stability of the economic situation in the Eurozone, despite the continued presence of geopolitical challenges and fluctuations in the international arena. ECB representatives noted in their comments that the latest inflation data confirms the bank's projections and that the inflation rate is expected to remain around 2%.

This morning promises to be rich in economic data from Germany. Data on changes in industrial production and trade balance dynamics are expected to be released. The German industry, a driving force behind exports and advanced technologies, is sensitive to changes in global demand and production activity. Following a period of instability driven by external shocks, investors are closely monitoring developments in this sector. Positive news may indicate a revival of production processes or, at a minimum, their stabilization, which would support the European currency.

Simultaneously, Germany's trade balance, which is traditionally characterized by a significant positive balance, will provide insight into the ratio of exports to imports. Economists will look for confirmation of the country's export potential resilience under current conditions.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: Today, I can buy euros at a price around 1.1806 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth to 1.1829. At point 1.1829, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Growth in the euro today can only be anticipated after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise.
• Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1791 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise can be expected to the opposing levels of 1.1809 and 1.1829.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the price reaches 1.1791 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.1762, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair today will return with weak data. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.
• Scenario #2: I also intend to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1806 price level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decrease can be expected in the opposing levels of 1.1791 and 1.1762.

What's on the Chart:

The thin green line represents the entry price at which one can buy the trading instrument;

The thick green line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

The thin red line represents the entry price at which one can sell the trading instrument;

The thick red line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

The MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very careful when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.