Yesterday, JPMorgan published an interesting report that turns the familiar market alarm on its head.

In their view, sales of Bitcoin by the company Strategy, which controls roughly 4% of the circulating supply, can indeed produce periodic selling pressure, but they are not the main structural threat to Bitcoin. "We do not view Strategy as the primary structural threat to Bitcoin," the report says. A far more significant risk comes from traditional finance continuing to develop blockchain infrastructure that effectively bypasses public, permissionless networks.

The argument is that banks and large institutions are increasingly choosing closed, permissioned blockchain infrastructure rather than public networks like Ethereum, Solana, or Avalanche. The reason is simple and pragmatic: permissioned systems provide built-in KYC and AML procedures, privacy, governability, and clear legal accountability — precisely the features which public blockchains currently lack for truly institutional scale. JPMorgan backs this point with its own example: the bank's Kinexys platform, running on a closed permissioned network, has already processed more than $4 trillion in transactions. The report also cites the Bank for International Settlements, which has previously warned against using public permissioned blockchains for systemically important financial infrastructure because of issues with scalability, governance, legal responsibility, and settlement finality — a thesis we recently examined in detail in connection with the BIS annual report.

Notably, JPMorgan concludes that the CLARITY Act could, paradoxically, make things worse rather than solve the problem. Regulatory clarity might encourage banks to more actively issue their own tokenized deposits, strengthening incumbent financial institutions while reducing demand for stablecoins issued on public blockchains. "In such a scenario, tokenization of real-world assets risks remaining inside the traditional financial system, and public blockchains would be relegated from primary settlement infrastructure to a mere channel for distribution and secondary trading, which would structurally reduce capital and liquidity inflows to the entire public crypto ecosystem," the report states.

JPMorgan candidly acknowledges the limits of its forecast: it may not materialize if a hybrid model wins out in which public and private blockchains develop in parallel, if the stablecoin market continues to grow under favorable regulation, or if Bitcoin preserves its role as "digital gold" irrespective of the fate of the wider public blockchain infrastructure.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently aiming to reclaim $63,900, which would open a direct path to $65,600 and then toward $67,700 — a breach of the latter would signal attempts to revive the bull market. On the downside, I expect buyers at $62,000. A return of the instrument below that area could quickly push BTC toward $60,600. The furthest downside target would be around $58,700.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $1,784 opens the door to $1,838. The farther target is the high near $1,901; breaking above that would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and a return of buyer interest. On the downside, I expect buyers at $1,725. A drop back below that area could quickly push ETH toward $1,650. The furthest downside target would be around $1,573.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.